Created 2 months ago, updated 11 days ago

Distribution Future Energy Scenarios - DFES 2020

Northern Powergrid's electricity distribution network is key to achieving decarbonisation goals in the northeast of England, Yorkshire, and parts of Lincolnshire. We are therefore presenting our Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) using an open data approach. Your feedback will help us to plan our network for the future developments in our region and to deliver the services and infrastructure required to fulfil the ambitions and plans of our regional stakeholders.

Our Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) 2020 show our predictions under a net zero early scenario we developed in response to stakeholder feedback as part of our Emerging Thinking earlier this year; and also four scenarios representing a regional interpretation of National Grid's GB Future Energy Scenarios, found here. The DFES data available below provides our forecasts down to primary substation level. We have provided a geo-spatial tool to help visualise these values both at a primary substation and Local Authority level. During the first quarter of 2020 we are seeking feedback on the forecasts presented and two feedback forms can be downloaded below. We will use your feedback to help inform our view of how we can best develop our network.

The parameters for which we are sharing our forecasts are fully explained in the DFES document downloadable below. The data itself can be downloaded on a local authority basis as well as for all of our primary electricity substations, major sites (bulk supply points), grid supply points and as an overall view for Northern Powergrid. Available data includes the following key DFES 2020 parameters but we will continue to load new parameters too as and when we find out that they are of interest to you:-

Low Carbon Technologies: Electric Vehicles (number); Heat Pumps (number); Domestic photovoltaic installed capacity (MW)

Energy consumption: Domestic underlying energy consumption (MWh); Industrial and commercial underlying energy consumption (MWh); Total energy consumption including electric vehicles and heat pumps (MWh)

Generation: Large solar generation installed capacity (MW); Wind generation installed capacity (MW); Other generation installed capacity (MW); Energy storage installed capacity (MW)

Electricity Demand: Peak demand at Primary Substations (MW); Peak demand with customer flexibility at Primary Substations (MW); Peak utilisation at Primary Substations (%); Peak utilisation with customer flexibility at Primary Substations (%)


The Distribution Future Energy Scenarios 2020 (DFES 2020) document presenting high level results and signposting to the open data and the visualisation tool

This spreadsheet contains the data behind the DFES document and shows values for the Northern Powergrid overview for each parameter included in our DFES. Forecast projections go out to 2050.

Data for each Local Authority in the Northern Powergrid region out to 2050 for Electric Vehicles, Heat Pumps, Generation, Storage, and electrical energy consumption.

Note that some of the percentage allocations between LAs and Primaries will be subject to review in 2021. This version V1_1 is based on the 2020 workings for those percentage allocations.

A useful tool for selecting your local authority and charting the Electric Vehicle data. It also shows charts for the minimum and maximum across all the local authorities in the Northern Powergrid region. Electric Vehicles are of all types - Pure electric and plug in hybrid, cars and light vans. More detailed breakdowns are available in the full local authority data workbook.

Note that the percentage allocations between primary substations and local authorities are being reviewed in 2021. This version 1_1 is based on the 2020 workings.

A useful tool for selecting your local authority and charting the Total Heat Pump data. It also shows charts for the minimum and maximum across all the local authorities in the Northern Powergrid region. Heat pumps are of all types - full electric and hybrid, domestic and industrial and commercial. More detailed breakdowns are available in the full local authority data workbook.

Note that the percentage allocations between primary substations and local authorities are being reviewed in 2021. This version 1_1 is based on the 2020 workings.


Northern Powergrid Metadata showing the Network Topology and the allocation of primary substations to the Local Authority Areas to which they distribute electricity. These splits form the basis of the ODI Leeds DFES 2020 visualisation tool.

These are the building blocks exchanged between the DNOs and the National Grid ESO Future Energy Scenarios Team for informing the next FES iteration and for allowing comparability and transparency. They are agreed under the auspices of the Energy Networks Association Open Networks Project Workstream 1B Product 2.

Additional aggregated values added Jan 2021 for Total storage capacity, renewable generation capacity, non renewable generation capacity, generation capacity, number of heat pumps, number of electric vehicles.

This is the data for Northern Powergrid's bulk supply points out to 2050 for DFES 2020 core relevant parameters (Generation, Demand and LCTs). Note that the amount of distributed generation at supply points will be higher than the sum of that at the primaries fed from the supply point. This is because of additional direct connections.

This large spreadsheet contains the data for Northern Powergrid Primaries, out to 2050 for the core relevant DFES parameters. It includes peak demand and utilisation, Distributed Generation and Low Carbon Technologies like Electric Vehicles and Heat Pumps. It is a huge flat file for which you can filter on your selected parameters and scenarios. CSV files are also available individually further down in the DFES 2020 dataset if you are only interested in one parameter or one scenario at a time.

EV-NZE.csv  (141.78 kB)

Electric Vehicles at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

EV-CT.csv  (146.85 kB)

Electric Vehicles at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

EV-LTW.csv  (142.24 kB)

Electric Vehicles at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

EV-SP.csv  (141.47 kB)

Electric Vehicles at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

EV-ST.csv  (143.84 kB)

Electric Vehicles at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

HP-NZE.csv  (125.75 kB)

Heat Pumps at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

HP-CT.csv  (132.32 kB)

Heat Pumps at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

HP-LTW.csv  (129.27 kB)

Heat Pumps at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

HP-SP.csv  (117.04 kB)

Heat Pumps at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

HP-ST.csv  (125.34 kB)

Heat Pumps at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Gross Peak Demand at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Gross Peak Demand at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020 after price driven customer flexibility (TouT). i.e. delivered by market not directly procured by DSO/TSO

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Utilisation (peak demand as % of firm capacity) at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Utilisation (peak demand as % of firm capacity) at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020 after price driven customer flexibility (TouT). i.e. delivered by market not directly procured by DSO/TSO

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

PeakDemand-CT.csv  (160.89 kB)

Gross Peak Demand at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Gross Peak Demand at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020 after price driven customer flexibility (TouT). i.e. delivered by market not directly procured by DSO/TSO

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Utilisation (peak demand as % of firm capacity) at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Utilisation (peak demand as % of firm capacity) at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020 after price driven customer flexibility (TouT). i.e. delivered by market not directly procured by DSO/TSO

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Gross Peak Demand at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Gross Peak Demand at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020 after price driven customer flexibility (TouT). i.e. delivered by market not directly procured by DSO/TSO

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Utilisation (peak demand as % of firm capacity) at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Utilisation (peak demand as % of firm capacity) at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020 after price driven customer flexibility (TouT). i.e. delivered by market not directly procured by DSO/TSO

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

PeakDemand-SP.csv  (157.84 kB)

Gross Peak Demand at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Gross Peak Demand at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020 after price driven customer flexibility (TouT). i.e. delivered by market not directly procured by DSO/TSO

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Utilisation (peak demand as % of firm capacity) at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Utilisation (peak demand as % of firm capacity) at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020 after price driven customer flexibility (TouT). i.e. delivered by market not directly procured by DSO/TSO

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

PeakDemand-ST.csv  (159.28 kB)

Gross Peak Demand at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Gross Peak Demand at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020 after price driven customer flexibility (TouT). i.e. delivered by market not directly procured by DSO/TSO

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Utilisation (peak demand as % of firm capacity) at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

Utilisation (peak demand as % of firm capacity) at Northern Powergrid Primary Substations DFES 2020 after price driven customer flexibility (TouT). i.e. delivered by market not directly procured by DSO/TSO

Scenario Codes: CT - Community Transformation; LTW - Leading The Way; NZE - Net Zero Early; SP - Steady Progression; ST - System Transformation

This takes you to the Github repository where you can view on screen the files behind the visualisation tool. They are most useful for people who have the Github Desktop App and are familiar with Open Data.

This takes you to the Github repository where you can view on screen the files behind the overview graphs (which you can navigate to from the visualisation tool). They are most useful for people who have the Github Desktop App and are familiar with Open Data. The graphics files in particular may be of interest.