Distribution Future Energy Scenarios - DFES 2022

Northern Powergrid's electricity distribution network is key to achieving decarbonisation goals in the northeast of England, Yorkshire, and parts of Lincolnshire. We are therefore presenting our Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) using an open data approach. Your feedback will help us to plan our network for the future developments in our region and to deliver the services and infrastructure required to fulfil the ambitions and plans of our regional stakeholders.

Our Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) 2022 show our predictions under a Planning Scenario we developed in response to stakeholder feedback to represent our best view; and also four scenarios representing a regionalised interpretation of National Grid's GB Future Energy Scenarios, found here. The DFES data available below provides our forecasts down to primary substation level. We have provided a geo-spatial tool to help visualise these values both at a primary substation and local authority level. During the first quarter of 2022 we are seeking feedback on the forecasts presented. We will use your feedback to help inform our view of how we can best develop our network.

The parameters for which we are sharing our forecasts are fully explained in the DFES document downloadable below. The data itself can be downloaded on a local authority basis as well as for all of our primary electricity substations, major sites (bulk supply points), grid supply points and as an overall view for Northern Powergrid. Available data includes the following key DFES 2022 parameters but we will continue to load new parameters, as and when we find out that they are of interest to you:

Low carbon technologies :

  • electric vehicles (number)
  • heat pumps (number)
  • domestic photovoltaic installed capacity (MW)

Energy consumption :

  • domestic underlying energy consumption (MWh)
  • industrial and commercial underlying energy consumption (MWh)
  • Total energy consumption including electric vehicles and heat pumps (MWh)

Generation :

  • Large solar generation installed capacity (MW)
  • Wind generation installed capacity (MW)
  • Other generation installed capacity (MW)
  • Energy storage installed capacity (MW)

Electricity network demand :

  • Peak demand at Primary Substations (MW)
  • Peak utilisation at Primary Substations (%)

This repository will be populated during December 2022, if you think something is missing during this period, please check back later before contacting us.

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4 months ago  
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31 files
Northern Powergrid DFES 2022 - Overview Group Level Data Workbook V1.xlsx (1022.16 kB)

This spreadsheet contains the data behind the DFES document and shows values for the Northern Powergrid overview at group/licence level for each parameter included in our DFES. Forecast projections go out to 2050.

NPg_DFES_2022 Metadata_Network_Topology_LAs_V1.xlsx (194.05 kB)

Northern Powergrid Metadata showing the Network Topology and the allocation of primary substations to the Local Authority Areas to which they distribute electricity. These splits form the basis of the Open Innovations Leeds DFES 2022 visualisation tool.

NPg_DFES_2022_Published_Building_Blocks_v1.xlsx (2.10 MB)

Grid Supply Point (GSP) DFES 2022 Core Building Blocks.

This gives you all the data for all the projections for each GSP and is the information exchange with National Grid to help inform next year's FES

Bulk Supply Points Data Workbook for Northern Powergrid DFES 2022 V2.xlsx (2.86 MB)

This is the data for Northern Powergrid's bulk supply points out to 2050 for DFES 2022 core relevant parameters (Generation, Demand and LCTs). Note that the amount of distributed generation at supply points will be higher than the sum of that at the primaries fed from the supply point. This is because of directs connections that are made to the BSP which are in addition to those that are accumulated at the BSP level from the connections to the Primary Substations.

Primaries Data Workbook for Northern Powergrid DFES 2022 V3.xlsx (17.75 MB)

This large spreadsheet contains the data for Northern Powergrid Primaries, out to 2050 for the core relevant DFES parameters. It includes peak demand and utilisation, Distributed Generation and Low Carbon Technologies like Electric Vehicles and Heat Pumps. It is a flat file which you can filter on your selected parameters and scenarios. CSV files are also available individually further down in the DFES 2022 dataset if you are only interested in one parameter or one scenario at a time.

V3 - Update May 2023 of EV distribution across primaries

LA View Workbook for NPg DFES 2022 v3.xlsx (2.58 MB)

Data for each Local Authority in the Northern Powergrid region out to 2050 for Electric Vehicles, Heat Pumps, Generation, Storage, and electrical energy consumption.

Note that the LA allocation now includes large generation and storage connected directly to supply points within local authority areas as well as the smaller generation and storage connected to primary substations.

V3 - Update May 2023 of EV distribution across LA's

Local Authority Charting Tool - Data for Heat Pumps 2022 v1.xlsx (602.76 kB)

A useful tool for selecting your local authority and charting the Total Heat Pump data. It also shows charts for the minimum and maximum across all the local authorities in the Northern Powergrid region. Heat pumps are of all types - full electric and hybrid, domestic and industrial and commercial. More detailed breakdowns are available in the full local authority data workbook.

Local Authority Charting Tool - Data for Electric Vehicles 2022 v3.xlsx (616.61 kB)

A useful tool for selecting your local authority and charting the Electric Vehicle data. It also shows charts for the minimum and maximum across all the local authorities in the Northern Powergrid region. Electric Vehicles are of all types - Pure electric and plug in hybrid, cars and light vans. More detailed breakdowns are available in the full local authority data workbook.

V3 - Update May 2023 - a redistribution of EVs across LA's in the early years of the forecast.