Distribution Future Energy Scenarios - DFES 2023

Northern Powergrid's electricity distribution network future energy scenarios are key to understanding how we can achieve our decarbonisation goals in the northeast of England, Yorkshire, and parts of Lincolnshire. We are therefore presenting our Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) using an open data approach. Your feedback will help us to plan our network for the future developments in our region and to deliver the services and infrastructure required to fulfil the ambitions and plans of our regional stakeholders.

Our Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) 2023 show our predictions under a Best View Scenario which we are developing and consulting on with stakeholders; and also four scenarios representing a regionalised interpretation of National Grid's GB Future Energy Scenarios, found here. The DFES data available below provides our forecasts down to primary substation level. We have provided a geo-spatial tool to help visualise these values both at a primary substation and local authority level. During the first quarter of 2024 we are seeking feedback on the forecasts presented. We will use your feedback to help inform our view of how we can best develop our network.

The parameters for which we are sharing our forecasts are fully explained in the DFES document, and downloadable below. The data itself can be downloaded on a local authority basis as well as for all of our primary electricity substations, major sites (bulk supply points), grid supply points and as an overall view for Northern Powergrid. Available data includes the following key DFES 2024 parameters but we will continue to load new parameters, as and when we find out that they are of interest to you:

Low carbon technologies :

  • electric vehicles (number)
  • heat pumps (number)
  • domestic photovoltaic installed capacity (MW)

Energy consumption :

  • domestic underlying energy consumption (MWh)
  • industrial and commercial underlying energy consumption (MWh)
  • Total energy consumption including electric vehicles and heat pumps (MWh)

Generation :

  • Large solar generation installed capacity (MW)
  • Wind generation installed capacity (MW)
  • Other generation installed capacity (MW)
  • Energy storage installed capacity (MW)

Electricity network demand :

  • Peak demand at Primary Substations (MW)
  • Peak utilisation at Primary Substations (%)

This repository will be populated during late-December 2023 and mid-January 2024, if you think something is missing during this period, please check back later before contacting us.

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Last Update
a month ago  
10 files
NPg_DFES_2023_GSP_Published_Building_Blocks_v2.xlsx (2.49 MB)

DFES 2023 Core Building Blocks for each Northern Powergrid Grid Supply Point (GSP) - as exchanged with NG ESO

This gives you all the data for all the projections for each GSP and is the information exchange with National Grid to help inform next year's FES 2024

V2 - added large industry sensitivity for electrolysers and fuel switching, and put in our best view ToUT uptake assumptions.

Local Authority View Workbook for NPg DFES 2023 v2.xlsx (2.32 MB)

All LA based DFES 2023 data - and all on one page (flat file format). Also a sheet per parameter. Data is for each Local Authority in the Northern Powergrid region out to 2050 for each scenario and for Electric Vehicles, Heat Pumps, Generation, Storage, and electrical energy consumption. Filter on your chosen scenario, parameters and LA.

Generation and Storage includes large scale installations connected directly to the supply points within a local authority area.

V2 - added in total installed generation capacity

Local Authority Charting Tool - all Data - NPg DFES 2023 V2.xlsx (1.28 MB)

A useful tool for selecting your local authority, scenario and parameter and charting the results. It also contains all the flat data issued in the LA flat data workbook (Electric Vehicles, Heat Pumps, Generation, Storage, and electrical energy consumption)

V2 - added in total installed generation capacity

All-Scenario All-Substation Flat File for NPg DFES 2023_v2.xlsx (11.06 MB)Jan 2022 — Dec 2050

This workbook contains a compilation of different scenarios and parameters modelled, broken down by year, for Northern Powergrid's substations. It composes all the primaries, bulk supply points, and grid supply points into a single file.

V2 - added in total installed generation capacity

Local Authority Charting Tool - Data for Electric Vehicles 2023 v1.xlsx (629.18 kB)

A useful tool for selecting your local authority and charting the Electric Vehicle data. It also shows charts for the minimum and maximum across all the local authorities in the Northern Powergrid region. Electric Vehicles are of all types - Pure electric and plug in hybrid, cars and light vans. More detailed breakdowns are available in the full local authority data workbook.

Local Authority Charting Tool - Data for Heat Pumps 2023 v1.xlsx (629.15 kB)

A useful tool for selecting your local authority and charting the Total Heat Pump data. It also shows charts for the minimum and maximum across all the local authorities in the Northern Powergrid region. Heat pumps are of all types - full electric and hybrid, domestic and industrial and commercial. More detailed breakdowns are available in the full local authority data workbook.

Primaries Workbook for NPg DFES 2023_v2.xlsx (8.88 MB)Jan 2022 — Dec 2050

This workbook contains a compilation of different scenarios and parameters modelled, broken down by year, for Northern Powergrid's primary substations.

V2 - added in total installed generation capacity

BSPs Workbook for NPg DFES 2023_v2.xlsx (1.41 MB)Jan 2022 — Dec 2050

This workbook contains a compilation of different scenarios and parameters modelled, broken down by year, for Northern Powergrid's bulk supply point substations.

V2 - added in total installed generation capacity